Posted by Marc Faber on Sep 20th, 2007
Unlike all the Wall Street strategists who compare the current credit crisis to the credit crisis of 1998 (Long Term Capital Management), I believe that the ongoing credit problems will be far worse and of a longer-term nature. This will make it difficult for the market to reach new highs in the near future. Moreover, even if the 1998 comparison were to hold, we would still be looking at a much deeper stock market correction than the 22% sell-off we saw in 1998.
The stock market peaked out in July 1998, after having been in an uptrend since the 1991 lows. It then sold off on the Russian default and on the LTCM crisis by 22% to its intraday low on October 9, 1998. When it became obvious that the Fed would bail out LTCM, and it flooded the system with liquidity, the stock market took off. Between the October 9 intraday low and the year end, it rallied by 33%, to achieve a new all-time high, and then continued to rise — interrupted by a correction in 1999 — into the final March 2000 top.