The man who saw the financial crisis coming

It turns out I was in good company here in NZ.

When Moses came down from the mountaintop with a large stone tablet in either hand, no one paid any attention. They were too busy worshipping a golden calf.

Whether heifer or steer, the good book doesn’t say. But in the context of this story, we can assume the latter. Because when steers grow up they become bulls, and in market terms that was what we had in 2005 when Wayne Lochore emerged from the Coromandel to warn the world of a looming catastrophic collapse of western economies, and the US in particular.

Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae were disasters waiting to happen, he wrote in a series of email essays to big-hitters from Prime Minister Helen Clark down. The hugely indebted US was effectively bankrupted, sufficient to cause a global financial vortex.

“I see two potential triggers to severe global economic destabilisation, either of which will likely trigger the other… The first is obviously the growing power of the Asian economies, particularly the Chinese… The second, and probably more explosively dangerous trigger is the behaviour of the US debt merchants.”

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